Prediction Market Arbitrage
Guaranteed price gaps across Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt.
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Heads up: the scanner only runs once per day, so prices on the live
markets may have moved since this snapshot. The arbitrage itself should still be real
at the time of the pull, but verify both legs before placing any bets. Always run the
current order-book prices through the
Arb Calculator
before sizing a bet.
What do the âš Flagged tags mean?
- wide_gap
- The implied probabilities on the two markets differ by more than 20 points. Often signals one side hasn't priced in a real-world event yet (or a contract-definition mismatch). Real-money traders should verify the markets are truly settling the same outcome.
- wide_spread_a / wide_spread_b
- The bid–ask spread on the flagged side (A or B) is wider than 15 cents. You can't actually buy at the mid-price; you'd be paying closer to the ask, which can eat the whole edge.
- thin_depth_a / thin_depth_b
- Less than $20 of size is available on the flagged side at within 3 cents of the best price. The arb might disappear before you can fill anything meaningful.
- one_sided_a / one_sided_b
- The flagged side has an ask but no bid (or vice versa). The market is effectively one-directional; the "price" we see may not be one you can actually trade against.
- inferred_a / inferred_b
- The probability on the flagged side was inferred from the order book (mid of best bid/ask) because there was no recent trade to anchor on. Possibly a stale or illiquid market.
A flagged arb isn't necessarily fake — it's just one the upstream scanner thinks you should look at carefully before staking. Use the chip above to hide them.
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